2006-2007 Session
October 11th 2006, 2pm to 5pm at MANDEC (Manchester Dental Education Centre), Higher Cambridge Street (tea will be served about mid-afternoon) (building 41, entrance on corner facing building 35) Joint meeting with
Manchester University's Biostats Group Theme: "Screening for identification, efficiency and prediction" NICOLE AUGUSTINIncorporating model selection uncertainty into prognostic models for survival data For survival data we discuss two approaches for accounting for model selection uncertainty with the main emphasis on variable selection in a proportional hazard Cox model. The first approach is Bayesian model averaging. The second approach carries out model averaging with weights estimated from bootstrap resampling. FIONA MATTHEWS Two phase designs are common to estimate disease prevalence, but less is known about their use for longitudinal estimates. This talk will discuss the issues surrounding estimation of disease from such longitudinal designs. The modelling of the missing data due to study design, drop-out and mortality will be discussed. ROSEANNE MCNAMEE Evaluation of screening tests from 2-phase cohort designs seems attractive as the gold standard need only be applied to random samples of subjects and formulae for the optimal design of such studies exist. The statistical efficiency of these and other 2-phase designs, eg for prevalence, regression coefficients, will be questioned. December 6th 2006 at MMU Room E34, John Dalton Building (opp BBC), 2.00pm to 5.00pm Note the change from the usual roomJoint meeting with the RSS
Primary Health Care Study Group Performance monitoring of medical outcomes: methodological issues in recent developments In recent years there has been increasing attention given to statistical aspects of performance monitoring in medical contexts. In this talk, I will discuss some specific methodology that has been devised, with a particular focus on longitudinal monitoring of performance. The adaptation of methods used in other contexts to incorporate risk adjustment will be emphasized. An attempt will be made to highlight methodological issues of general relevance. DAVID REEVES (University of Manchester)Combining multiple indicators of clinical quality Quantitative methods are increasingly being used to assess and compare clinical care amongst primary care providers. Assessment usually involves collecting data against a range of clinical indicators. Different studies have applied different methods for combining across indicators to produce an overall "composite" quality score for each provider. This paper applies some of the more common methods to two quality indicator datasets to assess how far the conclusions made about quality depend upon the method used to combine the indicators. Some suggestions and recommendations are made. MIKE PRINGLE (University of Nottingham)The intangible aspects of quality: relationship to the measurable Many aspects of "quality" are measurable. Conventional audits, target achievements (such as the Quality and Outcomes Framework), and health care statistics have shown this in primary care. As a partner in QRESEARCH and QFLU I am a firm believer in the utility of information derived from data. Yet much of the effective improvements in health care have harnessed the power of qualitative data: anecdotes, case studies, significant events and adverse events. This talk will look at the benefits from a dual approach that values the measurable alongside the emotive, in the pursuit of quality. February 7th 2007 at MMU Room E32, John Dalton Building (opp BBC), 4.00pm to 6.00pm Young Statisticians
Meeting A series of presentations from 'career young' statisticians, with speakers from diverse fields talking about their career progression and prospects, as well as describing what their job entails on a routine basis. Following a networking opportunity over tea and coffee, there will be an occasion for discussion and questions. The inaugural 'RSS Manchester Student prize', a new award for statistics aimed at North-West based undergraduates will also be introduced. Wednesday 14th March 2007, 2.00pm - 5.00pm Note the change from the usual room A joint meeting with the
RSS Medical Section www.the-ba.net/the-ba/Events/NSEW/index.html] HILARY NEWISS (Ethics and Governance Committee, UK
Biobank) BILL OLLIER (Centre for Integrated Genomic Medical
Research, University of Manchester) ELIO RIBOLI (Division of Epidemiology, Public Health and
Primary Care, Imperial College, London) The EPIC study was devised to investigate relationships between nutrition, obesity, lack of physical activity and related metabolic and hormonal factors, and cancer. To facilitate this investigation, a network of biorepositories with samples of DNA, plasma, serum and erythrocytes was established to store over 10 million samples from 420,000 volunteers. May 16th at MMU Room E32, John Dalton Building (opp BBC), 4.30pm to 6.00pm PETER
DIGGLE (Lancaster University, John Hopkins University) Model-based Geostatistics for Tropical
Disease Epidemiology Geostatistical methods are relevant when there is scientic interest in the behaviour of a spatially continuous process S(x) which is not directly observable. Instead, spatially discrete data Yi : i = 1,..., n are available, and Yi is stochasticaly related to S(xi). Problems of this kind arise naturally in tropical disease epidemiology because complete assessment of disease incidence or prevalence in the population of interest (typically one or more developing countries) is infeasible. Instead, spatial variation in incidence or prevalence must be inferred from incomplete sampling of selected communities within the population of interest. Diggle, Moyeed and Tawn (1998) coined the phrase "model-based geostatistics" to mean the application of general principles of statistical modelling and inference to geostatistical problems. In this talk, I will review the basic ideas of model-based geostatistics and describe an application to the estimation of spatial variation in the prevalence of Loa loa (river blindness) in Africa, using both univariate (Thompson et al, 2007) and bivariate (Crainiceanu, Diggle and Rowlingson, 2007) models. References:
June 20th 2007 at MMU Room E32, John Dalton Building (opp BBC), 4.30pm to 6.00pm AGM and First Awards of the RSS Manchester Student Prize RSS President Tim Holt |