Royal Statistical Society
Manchester Local Group

Feb 4th 2003 at 2.30pm - note Tuesday!

Xaverian College, Rusholme, Manchester
(Drama Studio, Redcliffe Building)


 
How toWin Games: Probability Models for Success
 

David F. Percy, University of Salford


Phil Taylor recently scored a nine-dart 501 finish in a world championship and Tony David made a 170 check-out in a similar tournament.  What are the chances that you or I might achieve these magnificent feats?  Peter Ebdon will soon defend his world snooker title under intense pressure from Stephen Hendry and others.  How do they decide which shots to  play and how could we improve our own games to emulate these  masters?

This light-hearted talk considers the beautiful application of probability models to everyday life, specifically focussing on popular games including those above and the national lottery, which has a huge impact in the UK.  We also look at some puzzling paradoxes and some serious issues where probability is crucial, including a discussion of ongoing miscarriages of justice in society.

For a map and other details, see www.rss-manchester.org